Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
