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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "serious consequences" during the summer in case Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, he finally introduced considerable penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal in reality compromise that same autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, the former president persists to consider the war as a basic land disagreement, as if giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about controlling a charred region of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer serves as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in position the presently separated regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel the nation to give up all of this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these positions, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv should he eventually decide to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict easier for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to underscore this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no obligation that Putin risk his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in law its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has breached similar agreements in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on western protection assurances. Although the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars vary from fuzzy to alarming. The plan would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

An additional parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against additional invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not