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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd